| | Merv Cowley |
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Course of study: | | Doctor of Philosophy, Queensland University of Technology |
Research topic: | | Modelling and forecasting office property markets |
Since completing PhD/Masters | | Since returning to full time employment at the Department of Public Works in 2005, and following two promotions, Merv is currently Manager of Portfolio Analysis and Development. Merv is also a sessional academic for a number of units in the Property Economics/Urban Development under-graduate degree courses. |
Research contribution to theory: | | Cyclical boom-bust events in commercial property markets have generated significant financial impacts for property owners / investors, the construction industry and, from a wider perspective, national and local economies. Modern valuation / viability analysis techniques require the incorporation of forecasts for several market and economic variables. These forecasts play a critical role in determining whether projects proceed or not. However, prior research and local surveys indicate inconsistencies and a lack of rigour in the formulation of forecasts in the property industry.
Research to date has identified the key drivers (or leading indicators) used internationally to model and forecast activity in office markets. Market modelling using local data has identified several leading indicators, but has also revealed scope for further refinement of forecasting techniques. Cooperation with the Queensland State Government has provided a unique opportunity to use long-term property market data and geographic information system (GIS) technology to map and plot market trends within the Brisbane central business district. This will enable a more detailed segmentation approach to modelling rents and values across the city. The research will resolve whether this approach can generate more accurate property / project specific forecasts.
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Research contribution to industry practice: | | The research will derive a more consistent industry approach to the formulation and application of office market forecasts.
Current property assessment practice entails adopting single city-wide growth forecasts for office building rents and values regardless of any specific city precinct influences. Research has shown central business districts do not move as one in terms of property values. This testing of a new segmentation method of modelling and forecasting rents and values for a sample office market has the potential of delivering increased reliability to viability studies.
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